NAR says PENDING SALES hit 3 YEAR HIGH

Pending Home Sales Hit Highest Mark in More than 3 Years: NAR

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) said Tuesday that its index of home sales contracts is up yet again, representing the ninth straight month that pending sales have recorded a rise – the longest run of increases since NAR began tracking sales agreements back in 2001.

The trade group’s Pending Home Sales Index showed an increase in signed contracts of 3.7 percent in October compared to September.

Perhaps even more noteworthy is that the latest reading is the highest on record since March 2006 and is nearly 32 percent above October 2008. The rise from a year ago is the biggest annual increase ever posted for NAR’s pending sales index.

Although the pending home sales numbers don’t always turn into tangible closed transactions – according to NAR they’ve been thwarted as of late by new appraisal rules – we’re still exceeding what the association deems as customary stats.

Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist, says based on the country’s demographics, existing-home sales should be in the range of 5.5 million to 6.0 million annually. Based on the trade group’s existing-home sales report last month, the industry is currently moving properties at an annual rate of 6.1 million.

According to Yun, the gain is primarily due to the federal government’s popular $8,000 tax credit for first-time buyers, seeing as how the annual sales rate was well below the 5-million mark before the homebuyer tax credit stimulus was passed.

“This means the tax credit is helping unleash a pent-up demand from a large pool of financially qualified renters, much more than borrowing sales from the future,” Yun said.

Yun cautioned, though, that home sales could dip in the months ahead. “The expanded tax credit has only been available for the past three weeks, but the time between when buyers start looking at homes until they close on a sale can take anywhere from three to five months. Given the lag time, we could see a temporary decline in closed existing-home sales from December until early spring when we get another surge,” Yun explained.

Yun projects that as inventories continue to decline and balance is gradually restored between buyers and sellers, housing conditions will become self-sustaining and prices in most areas will begin to stabilize around the middle of 2010.